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chart forecast is recorded at issuance regardless of trigger — automation DataBus, user chat, the self-trade engine, or the paid /v1/forecast API (x402/A2A/MCP/ACP) — across kronos / timesfm / consensus. Once a forecast’s horizon elapses, the actual close near its due time is resolved from a free source (CoinGecko for symbols, GeckoTerminal for token addresses) and scored predicted-vs-actual. Predictions and rolling stats are persisted to Postgres (einstein_forecast_predictions / einstein_forecast_accuracy_stats) with atomic increments and survive restarts; the leaderboard is durable, not reset on redeploy. Short horizons (4h candle × 8 = 32h) produce the first verified samples soonest; 1d/1w/1M take proportionally longer. SAMPLE INDEPENDENCE (corrected 2026-08-29): a forecast is re-issued every 4 hours but each one looks a whole horizon ahead, so consecutive predictions in a series are overwhelmingly the same call restated — 8x overlap at 4h, 42x at 1d, 168x at 1w. Hit rates are therefore computed over one representative forecast per NON-OVERLAPPING horizon window (bucketed by issuance time, earliest row per bucket), not over every recorded prediction. Before this correction a single wrong 28-day call could publish as \"0.000 over 125 samples\". A directional call whose outcome finished inside the ±0.5% deadband is reported separately as a scratch and excluded from the rate, so the figure is comparable to a 50% coin flip. MAPE and RMSE are still computed over every verified prediction."}